Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 201145TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.$$Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Tropical
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 33.7, -33.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Fay
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 33.1W ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected for about another day. A turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi]]> -
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026384 WTNT21 KNHC 200840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 200842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about 40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about 100-150 n mi across. The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic support. Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026000 FONT11 KNHC 200841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI -
Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:23:00 GMT