Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 221727TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a couple hundred miles southeast of Nantucket Island, Massachusetts.Subtropical Central Atlantic:A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible through Friday while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.&&Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.$$Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Subtropical
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Josephine (AT5/AL102026)
...JOSEPHINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Josephine was located near 39.2, -67.3 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Josephine
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Subtropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...JOSEPHINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 67.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected to continue into tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through the day today while Josephine begins to transition to an extratropical cyclone. Josephine is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds tonight or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through today. See products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information. SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven]]> -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026000 WTNT25 KNHC 221435 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 67.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT.......360NE 110SE 170SW 240NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 500SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 67.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.5N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...360NE 130SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.3N 60.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...360NE 160SE 190SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.4N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...350NE 200SE 190SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.7N 54.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...340NE 190SE 190SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.9N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 190SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.2N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026000 WTNT45 KNHC 221436 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that an area of convection has developed to the north of the center of Josephine, although the convective curvature is less than it was last night. Just- received scatterometer data suggests the convective cluster is near or just west of a developing frontal boundary. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the previous advisory, and the scatterometer shows winds near 50 kt west of the center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on a subtropical cyclone intensity estimate from TAFB and the possibility of the scatterometer undersampling the maximum wind. The initial motion is northeastward or 040/10 kt. GOES RGB airmass imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada southwestward into the northeastern US, and Josephine should accelerate northeastward during the next 12-24 h as this trough amplifies and approaches the cyclone. After 24 h or so, Josephine should turn more eastward as it becomes embedded in the mid- latitude westerlies. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine will move away from the New England states today and pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is again tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. The interaction between Josephine and the aforementioned trough should cause the cyclone to develop fronts and become extratropical during the next 12 h, and the scatterometer data suggests this process is already underway. However, intensification is expected during this transition and Josephine will become a hurricane-force extratropical low later tonight and on Friday. The dynamical models are in good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken after 24 h, and they forecast Josephine to dissipate between 72 and 96 h as it is absorbed by a new low pressure area developing to its northeast. The new intensity forecast is based mainly on the global physical models and it has only minor adjustments from the last forecast. The wind radii forecasts have also been revised based on the global model forecasts. Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.2N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 40.5N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1200Z 42.3N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0000Z 43.4N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1200Z 43.7N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 43.9N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z 43.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026000 FONT15 KNHC 221436 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 6( 6) 38(44) 13(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 26(26) 33(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 15(15) 15(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 34 X 16(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) EDDY POINT NS 34 19 55(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SYDNEY NS 34 X 56(56) 8(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SABLE ISLAND 34 79 20(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 26(26) 33(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 70 10(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) YARMOUTH NS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST JOHN NB 34 18 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) EASTPORT ME 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN -
Subtropical Storm Josephine Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 15:23:11 GMT